PPI showed clear downside surprises across headline and core measures, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged far above forecasts. Equities ended mixed: SPY and IWM up, QQQ and RSP down, as VIX fell and credit edged higher.
Jobless claims beat forecasts, but existing home sales fell sharply versus expectations. Equities gained across major indexes, VIX dropped, credit was steady, and oil fell while gold rose.
FOMC minutes kept inflation risk in focus while crude inventories surprised sharply. Rates edged higher, TLT slipped, VIX jumped, and energy outperformed as SPY, RSP, and IWM declined.
Inflation expectations beat estimates and long Treasuries sold off. Stocks finished lower, with Nasdaq and Technology lagging, while Energy rose as oil climbed. Volatility and long-end yields moved higher; credit was slightly risk-off.
ISM services stayed in expansion. Employment surprised higher, supporting a tech-led equity rally (SPY +0.79%, QQQ +1.68%), while equal-weight dipped (RSP -0.07%) and long Treasuries slipped (TLT -0.21%).
June’s Nonfarm Payrolls fell to 57 (vs 110 expected) while unemployment slipped to 4.20%. Markets closed mixed: SPY -0.13%, QQQ -1.73%, but RSP +0.70% and credit held up.
ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly weaker (53.3 vs 54.0), but ISM prices fell sharply (73 vs 79). Equities rose overall (SPY +0.30%, IWM +0.59%) while QQQ lagged (-0.98%), with VIX easing (to 16).
JOLTs and Dallas Fed services surprised to the upside, while consumer confidence missed. Equities rose and VIX fell to 16.74 as HYG stayed steady, though TLT edged lower.
Dallas Fed manufacturing dropped to 0.00 (vs 2.00 est, 0.40 prior). Stocks rose unevenly: SPY +1.29%, QQQ +1.88%, but IWM slipped -1.01%. VIX fell and credit edged up.
June signals were split: sentiment improved and inventories beat expectations, but the goods trade balance deteriorated and tech stocks fell. Volatility ticked up while credit stayed slightly pressured.