Daily market context, macro notes, and session recaps from Capital Assets. Educational commentary only—not financial advice.
Market Updates
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PPI showed clear downside surprises across headline and core measures, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged far above forecasts. Equities ended mixed: SPY and IWM up, QQQ and RSP down, as VIX fell and credit edged higher.
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Jobless claims beat forecasts, but existing home sales fell sharply versus expectations. Equities gained across major indexes, VIX dropped, credit was steady, and oil fell while gold rose.
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FOMC minutes kept inflation risk in focus while crude inventories surprised sharply. Rates edged higher, TLT slipped, VIX jumped, and energy outperformed as SPY, RSP, and IWM declined.
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Inflation expectations beat estimates and long Treasuries sold off. Stocks finished lower, with Nasdaq and Technology lagging, while Energy rose as oil climbed. Volatility and long-end yields moved higher; credit was slightly risk-off.
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ISM services stayed in expansion. Employment surprised higher, supporting a tech-led equity rally (SPY +0.79%, QQQ +1.68%), while equal-weight dipped (RSP -0.07%) and long Treasuries slipped (TLT -0.21%).
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June’s Nonfarm Payrolls fell to 57 (vs 110 expected) while unemployment slipped to 4.20%. Markets closed mixed: SPY -0.13%, QQQ -1.73%, but RSP +0.70% and credit held up.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly weaker (53.3 vs 54.0), but ISM prices fell sharply (73 vs 79). Equities rose overall (SPY +0.30%, IWM +0.59%) while QQQ lagged (-0.98%), with VIX easing (to 16).
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JOLTs and Dallas Fed services surprised to the upside, while consumer confidence missed. Equities rose and VIX fell to 16.74 as HYG stayed steady, though TLT edged lower.
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Dallas Fed manufacturing dropped to 0.00 (vs 2.00 est, 0.40 prior). Stocks rose unevenly: SPY +1.29%, QQQ +1.88%, but IWM slipped -1.01%. VIX fell and credit edged up.
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June signals were split: sentiment improved and inventories beat expectations, but the goods trade balance deteriorated and tech stocks fell. Volatility ticked up while credit stayed slightly pressured.